Key Takeaways

• Fuel Reserve Vulnerability:
  New Zealand’s 21-day diesel reserve leaves the nation critically exposed to global trade disruptions—and these risks could materialize before comprehensive preparedness measures are in place.
• Biodiesel for Fuel and Food Security:
  Biodiesel produced from feedstocks like canola offers a near-term solution by converting food and cooking oil production to biofuel. Scaling up will require preparing for refinery conversions and expanded crop production.
• Fuel-Efficient Maritime Logistics:
  Local shipping—such as ferries, grain carriers, and naval tankers—is essential for crisis logistics. Ships consume 50% less fuel per tonne/km than trucks (even if transit times are longer), making them critical for both domestic and international transport.
• Urgent Policy Action Needed:
  Central and local governments must prioritize biodiesel readiness, accelerate the electrification of short-range transport to reduce fuel dependency as well as to meet climate targets, and forge regional resilience partnerships (e.g., with Australia).

Why Fuel Security Is a Ticking Clock for New Zealand

Global catastrophes—whether due to nuclear conflict, extreme pandemics, or crippling cyberattacks—could halt fuel imports for months or even years. For island nations like New Zealand, which imports 100% of its refined diesel, this risk is severe. The nation’s 21-day diesel stockpile would be exhausted rapidly in a crisis, jeopardizing agriculture, healthcare, and emergency response systems.

The urgency is clear: Immediate action is critical to shore up fuel infrastructure before disaster strikes.

Prior research by my colleagues and others focused on mitigating agricultural fuel dependency through biofuel crops like canola. My February 2025 presentation at the Society for Risk Analysis (Australia and New Zealand) annual conference highlighted two understudied dimensions:

1. The Maritime Lifeline:
   Ships provide the most fuel-efficient means for distributing fuel and food during crises. For bulk and international transport, ships are frequently the only practical solution.
2. Biodiesel from Food-Oil as an Emergency Measure:
   There is potential to expand our local food oil industry and be ready to convert this to biodiesel production in a crisis. 

Ships: The Unsung Heroes of Crisis Logistics

In a fuel-starved world, New Zealand’s survival hinges on efficiently moving essentials like food, fuel, and medical supplies. Ships (and trains) consume 50% less fuel per tonne/km than trucks, making them indispensable when every litre of diesel counts. 

Key vessel types include:

• Roll-on/Roll-off (RORO) Ferries:
  Critical for linking the North and South Islands (e.g., Bluebridge and Interislander).
• Naval Support Ships:
  The HMNZS Aotearoa can produce 100,000 litres of fresh water daily, transport 24 beach-loadable containers, and move 10 million litres of fuel. It also has the potential to operate on biodiesel—whether produced locally or imported.
• Bulk Carriers:
  Vital for transporting wheat grains and other basic foods post-crisis if liquid fuels are in short supply.

Note: In global disruptions, foreign-owned vessels might abandon New Zealand, underscoring the need for locally controlled fleets and locally produced biodiesel compatible with standard engines.

Biodiesel: A Proven Stopgap, But Scaling Is Key

New Zealand currently produces 10–20 million litres of food-grade canola oil annually—a volume far below what’s needed for robust biodiesel production. Refining canola oil into biodiesel could sustain essential agriculture, shipping, and other services during a crisis—if scaled appropriately.

Key Barriers to Scaling:

1. Feedstock Scarcity:
   
   • New Zealand produces around 9,000 tonnes of canola seeds on 3,000 hectares, primarily for food-grade oil.
   • With yields of around 1,400 litres of processed canola oil per hectare, mean 7,000 hectares are needed for every 10 million litres of biodiesel.
   • Crisis scenarios could unlock 30,000 hectares for canola, yielding 40 million litres of biodiesel, in rotation with 120,000 ha of wheat (the most fuel efficient crop to feed the NZ population).
   • Alternative feedstocks such as used cooking oil may become unavailable if restaurants and food vendors are no longer able to operate. 
2. Refinery Conversions:
   
   • Facilities such as Pure Oil NZ (currently food-focused) need targeted policy support and incentives to be ready to pivot to biodiesel production.
3. Regulatory and Technical Challenges:
   
   • Lessons from Canada’s CSL B100 project (in which cargo ships logged 75,000+ operating hours on pure biodiesel) indicate that maritime biofuels require updated regulations and rigorous testing.
   • New Zealand must establish clear biodiesel standards and address issues such as cold-flow properties, fuel stability, and blend compatibility.

Policy Priorities: From Planning to Action

To avert a “90-day collapse” scenario, New Zealand should consider the following actions:

1. Promote Biodiesel Use and Readiness:
   
   • Expand the use of B24 (24% biofuel) and higher blends in maritime transport (e.g., Bluebridge’s B24 initiatives).
   • Conduct B100 biodiesel trials in ships, agricultural equipment, and other critical transport sectors.
   • Initiate research and preparatory work for converting food-oil facilities into emergency biofuel refineries.
2. Electrify Short-Range Transport:
   
   • Prioritize electric ferries, farm machinery and essential service vehicles to reduce diesel dependence.
3. Build Regional Partnerships:
   
   • Establish fuel-sharing agreements and crisis logistics protocols with Australia and other Pacific nations.
     (See similar partnership approaches in pandemic preparedness initiatives.)

These topics will be explored further in a planned journal article on enhancing the resilience of New Zealand shipping in the face of catastrophic risks.

A Call for Proactive Resilience

New Zealand’s food exports might feed millions globally, but our own survival depends on foresight. By investing in biodiesel infrastructure, strengthening fuel-efficient maritime logistics, and accelerating the electrification of short-range transport, the nation can transform from a vulnerable fuel importer to a resilient island refuge.

The clock is ticking.

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