Refuge Repository

Founded as an archipelago of knowledge, this repository gathers academic papers and research exploring existential and catastrophic risks that could impact humanity's future. These collected works not only examine global-scale threats but also explore the vital role of geographical refuges in humanity's survival strategy. The research spans from artificial intelligence safety to sunlight reduction catastrophes, with special attention to how  island refuges as isolated territories might shelter human knowledge and populations from catastrophic events. Papers examine both the threats themselves and the potential of islands as strategic refuges - from their natural isolation serving as protection against pandemics, to their possible role as critical food exporters during global catastrophes. Together, these works create a topography of understanding, charting paths toward not just identifying risks but also preserving humanity's future through strategic preparation and resilient refuge planning.

Our collection is organized across three interconnected layers of the research canopy, reflecting different perspectives on catastrophic and existential risk:

Global Catastrophic Risk Governance

The Crown Layer contains our foundational works on global catastrophic risk governance, where sunlight meets strategy. These papers form the uppermost reaches of risk management, presenting frameworks, coordination approaches, and institutional structures that shelter and guide our collective response to civilization-scale threats. Like the forest canopy filtering sunlight, this layer shapes how we perceive and respond to global risks.

Analysis by Social Systems

Branching out beneath, the Systems Network examines how catastrophic risks spread through society's interconnected pathways – revealing how threats flow through economic branches, social networks, information channels, and critical infrastructure. These papers map our complex societal ecosystem, showing how vulnerabilities and resilience spread through each branching system.

Analysis by Individual Hazards

At the foundational level, the Root Hazards provide deep analysis of specific threats, from artificial intelligence alignment to pandemic potential, from nuclear scenarios to ecological tipping points. Like the vital root system of a tree, each collection here examines distinct threats that could destabilize everything above, offering concentrated insight into particular challenges that could fundamentally alter humanity's trajectory.

Global Catastrophic Risk Governance

analysis by social systems

analysis by individual hazards

Biothreats, Pandemics, and Island Border Closure

Global Health Security Index

SARS-CoV-2

Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter

Super Volcano

Artificial Intelligence